Long outlook

2006-11-15T18:05:00.000-08:00

Well I thought i would give it a try and give my thoughts and where i think the most precip and warmest temps will be at. Well here we go Through December There will be little or no snow according to the CFS With most the snow being in montana and Idaho washington and such There they will have above normal precip and The northern plains will hardley have anysnowthere they will be below normal .Now for rain and storms in December The west will have the most precip with The north east as second With everynow and then a few storms in the south.All in All the north west in december should see 9-11 inches of snow with higher amounts in mountains For precip 0.50-0.75 in the west with 0.25-0.50 in the north east and 0.25-0.35 in the south.Now for january things take a turn.The dakotas will become in the line of fire for possibly 1-2 good snow storms also western montana looks like a lot there too and eastern Idaho.So i am going with 10-12 inches of snow in northdakota with 9-11 inches in southdakota.And 13-15 inches in western montana.Now for rain/storms The west still looks underthe gun with 0.75-1.00 possible and the northeast 0.30-0.60 with the south 0.15-0.25 and the northern plains even know the models are underdoing the precip there saying 0.15-0.25 i am going with 0.30-0.60 Possibly more.Now on to february Dakotas still look under the gun so does montana with the dakotas getting a few strong winter storms with 14-18 inches possible and in montana 16-21 inches possible as far as storms/rain The midwest will get more precip with 0.25-0.30 possible the west should light up with 0.30-0.40 and the south 0.25-0.40.

Well i hope you enjoyed reading my outlook have a great night and weekend.

P.S this could change but i am just putting my thoughts out on what could happen

Watches for 10/27/06 as of 10:41pm CDT

2006-10-27T20:49:00.000-07:00

SEL1 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 841 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 630 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 630 AM UNTIL NOON CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOUMA LOUISIANA TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LA INTO SOUTHERN MS. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS...VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND DYNAMIC FORCING ARE PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AL. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035. ...HART
SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 841
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 630 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOUMA
LOUISIANA TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LA
INTO SOUTHERN MS. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND CAPE VALUES
AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS...VERY
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND DYNAMIC FORCING ARE PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST AL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.

...HART
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. WOUS64 KWNS 271128
WOU1

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 841
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006

TORNADO WATCH 841 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALC003-025-097-129-271700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0841.061027T1130Z-061027T1700Z/

AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALDWIN CLARKE MOBILE
WASHINGTON

LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-093-095-103-105-109-117-271700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0841.061027T1130Z-061027T1700Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES
ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WASHINGTON

MSC035-039-041-045-047-059-073-091-109-111-131-147-271700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0841.061027T1130Z-061027T1700Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FORREST GEORGE GREENE
HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON
LAMAR MARION PEARL RIVER
PERRY STONE WALTHALL

GMZ530-550-555-630-650-271700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0841.061027T1130Z-061027T1700Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM

MOBILE BAY

COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN...

Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas. SAW1
WW 841 TORNADO AL LA MS CW 271130Z - 271700Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
15NW HUM/HOUMA LA/ - 45NE MOB/MOBILE AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /34WSW MSY - 41NE SJI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.

LAT...LON 30459084 31868770 30428770 29009084

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.

Watch 841 Status Report Messages:STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 841
VALID 271640Z - 271700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE BVE
TO 10 N MOB TO 35 W GZH AND 30 S MOB TO 35 W PNS TO 40 ENE MOB.
WW 841 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTEBDED IN TIME FOR SOME ERN COUNTIES...PER
COORD W/MOB.
..EDWARDS..10/27/06
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 841
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC039-053-271700-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COVINGTON ESCAMBIA
$$
FLC033-091-113-271700-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
$$
GMZ555-650-655-271700-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 841
VALID 271540Z - 271640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE BVE
TO 10 N MOB TO 35 W GZH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2163.
..EDWARDS..10/27/06
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 841
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-039-053-097-271640-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN COVINGTON ESCAMBIA
MOBILE
$$
FLC033-091-113-271640-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
$$
GMZ555-630-650-655-271640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 841
VALID 271430Z - 271540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BVE TO
15 WNW GPT TO 30 NW MOB TO 60 SE MEI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2163.
..CROSBIE..10/27/06
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 841
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-025-097-129-271540-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CLARKE MOBILE
WASHINGTON
$$
LAC087-271540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ST. BERNARD
$$
MSC039-047-059-271540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE HARRISON JACKSON
$$
GMZ550-555-630-650-271540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 841
VALID 271335Z - 271440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HUM TO
10 W ASD TO 25 NW GPT TO 25 SE PIB.
..CROSBIE..10/27/06
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 841
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-025-097-129-271440-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CLARKE MOBILE
WASHINGTON
$$
LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-103-271440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES
ST. TAMMANY
$$
MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-271440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK
HARRISON JACKSON PERRY
STONE
$$
GMZ530-550-555-630-650-271440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.
Note: Click for Complete Product Text. Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (<5%)Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (70%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.

Go to md2163 discussionSEL2 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 842 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL 600 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 841... DISCUSSION...THREATS OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD ALONG THE COAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F WILL BE COMMON. AREA VWP/S AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL MAINTAIN VERY FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES SHOULD ADEQUATE INSTABILITY BE MAINTAINED. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030. ...EVANS
SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 842
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL 600
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 841...

DISCUSSION...THREATS OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD ALONG THE COAST WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F WILL BE COMMON. AREA VWP/S AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL MAINTAIN VERY FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES SHOULD ADEQUATE INSTABILITY BE MAINTAINED.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.

...EVANS
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. WOUS64 KWNS 271639
WOU2

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 842
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006

TORNADO WATCH 842 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC005-013-037-045-059-077-131-133-272300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0842.061027T1645Z-061027T2300Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN
GULF HOLMES LIBERTY
WALTON WASHINGTON

GMZ750-755-272300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0842.061027T1645Z-061027T2300Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas. SAW2
WW 842 TORNADO FL CW 271645Z - 272300Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40NW PNS/PENSACOLA FL/ - 25ENE AAF/APALACHICOLA FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM N/S /37ENE SJI - 44SSW TLH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.

LAT...LON 31458766 30458463 29298463 30298766

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.

Watch 842 Status Report Messages:STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 842
VALID 272150Z - 272240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PFN
TO 35 N AAF TO 25 N TLH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2166
..SPC..10/27/06
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 842
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC037-039-045-065-073-077-129-272240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF
JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY
WAKULLA
$$
GMZ750-755-272240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 842
VALID 272050Z - 272140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW PFN TO
10 WSW MAI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2166.
..EDWARDS..10/27/06
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 842
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC005-013-037-039-045-065-073-077-129-272140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GULF JEFFERSON
LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA
$$
GMZ750-755-272140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 842
VALID 271945Z - 272040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE PNS TO
35 ENE CEW.
WW MAY NEED LOCAL EXTENSION EWD. SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
FORTHCOMING.
..EDWARDS..10/27/06
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 842
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC005-013-037-045-059-077-131-133-272040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN
GULF HOLMES LIBERTY
WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
GMZ750-755-272040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 842
VALID 271840Z - 271940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE PNS
TO 25 NE CEW.
..EDWARDS..10/27/06
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 842
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC005-013-037-045-059-077-131-133-271940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN
GULF HOLMES LIBERTY
WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
GMZ750-755-271940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 842
VALID 271740Z - 271840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW PNS
TO 20 W GZH.
..EDWARDS..10/27/06
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 842
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC005-013-037-045-059-077-131-133-271840-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN
GULF HOLMES LIBERTY
WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
GMZ750-755-271840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.
Note: Click for Complete Product Text. Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Low (<5%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (<5%)Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
Mod (50%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.

Go to md2168 discussionSEL3 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 843 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 815 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 815 PM UNTIL 100 AM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA TO 90 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CROSS CITY FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...BROKEN SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS S GA/N FL THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND A SPATIALLY LIMITED MOIST SECTOR...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME OF THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE OVER THE NERN GULF MAY DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SPREAD INLAND OVER THE FL BIG BEND AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...THOMPSON
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. WOUS64 KWNS 280008
WOU3

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 843
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
815 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

TORNADO WATCH 843 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC001-003-007-017-023-029-041-047-067-075-079-083-121-123-125-
280500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0843.061028T0015Z-061028T0500Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CITRUS COLUMBIA DIXIE
GILCHRIST HAMILTON LAFAYETTE
LEVY MADISON MARION
SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION

GAC065-101-280500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0843.061028T0015Z-061028T0500Z/

GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLINCH ECHOLS

GMZ755-850-280500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0843.061028T0015Z-061028T0500Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...

Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas. SAW3
WW 843 TORNADO FL GA CW 280015Z - 280500Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40ENE VLD/VALDOSTA GA/ - 90SSW CTY/CROSS CITY FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /33SSW AMG - 61WNW PIE/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

LAT...LON 31008180 28428283 28428448 31008350

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.

Watch 843 Status Report Messages:STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 843
VALID 280305Z - 280440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SE AAF TO
10 NW CTY TO 35 W JAX TO 25 WSW SSI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2170
..SPC..10/28/06
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 843
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-017-041-075-083-125-280440-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CITRUS GILCHRIST LEVY
MARION UNION
$$
GMZ850-280440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 843
VALID 280155Z - 280240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE AAF TO
25 ESE VLD TO 25 SW AYS.
..SPC..10/28/06
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 843
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-017-023-029-041-047-067-075-083-121-125-280240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CITRUS COLUMBIA DIXIE
GILCHRIST HAMILTON LAFAYETTE
LEVY MARION SUWANNEE
UNION
$$
GAC065-101-280240-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLINCH ECHOLS
$$
GMZ755-850-280240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.
Note: Click for Complete Product Text. Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (<5%)Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
Mod (50%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.

Go to md2170 discussion

Storm Reports As of 10:38PM CDT for Friday oct27 2006

2006-10-27T20:46:00.000-07:00

1245
5 WNW LUMBERTON
LAMAR
MS
3103
8953
STORM SURVEY TEAM FOUND PATH OF TORNADIC DAMAGE EXTENDING 2 MILES NE FROM START POINT. A NUMBER OF TREES WERE SNAPPED ALONG ITS PATH. A VISUAL OF THIS TORNADO WAS ALSO (JAN)
1300
4 SW PURVIS
LAMAR
MS
3110
8946
POSSIBLE TORNADO SPOTTED ABOUT 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PURVIS. NUMEROUS TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN. (JAN)
1930
HOLLYWOOD BEACH
BAY
FL
3025
8596
BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AND FLIPPED CAR OVER ON U.S. HIGHWAY 98. (TAE)
2210
APALACHICOLA
FRANKLIN
FL
2972
8499
SEVERAL BUSINESSES RECEIVED MINOR DAMAGE. A FEW WINDOWS AT A LOCAL HOSPITAL WERE BLOWN OUT. (TAE)
Hail Reports (in CSV format)
No reports received
Wind Reports (in CSV format)
Time
Speed
Location
County
State
Lat
Lon
Comments
1200
UNK
3 SE KOKOMO
MARION
MS
3117
8997
18-WHEELER WAS FLIPPED OVER 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KOKOMO ON HIGHWAY 98. (JAN)
1240
UNK
POPLARVILLE
PEARL RIVER
MS
3084
8953
TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 59 NORTH AROUND EXIT 29 AND AT HENLEY FIELD ON HIGHWAY 43. (LIX)
1255
UNK
LUMBERTON
LAMAR
MS
3100
8945
TREE BLOWN DOWN ON A VEHICLE AT LUMBERTON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. (JAN)
1310
UNK
CAMP SHELBY
FORREST
MS
3118
8925
TREES DOWNED ALONG HIGHWAY 49 SOUTH AT CAMP SHELBY. A LARGE TENT AT THE SOUTH GATE OF CAMP SHELBY BLOWN DOWN. (JAN)
1320
UNK
PERKINSTON
STONE
MS
3078
8914
TREES DOWN (MOB)
1330
UNK
5 W MCLAIN
PERRY
MS
3111
8891
TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 98, WEST OF MCLAIN. (MOB)
1335
UNK
BOTHWELL
GREENE
MS
3133
8875
TREES DOWN. (MOB)
1340
UNK
RAMSEY SPRINGS
STONE
MS
3077
8892
TREES DOWN IN THE EAST PART OF COUNTY. (MOB)
1415
UNK
LEAKESVILLE
GREENE
MS
3115
8856
TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 63, SOUTH OF LEAKESVILLE. (MOB)
Full report in comma-separated values (CSV) format
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")

US WEATHER

1st big winter storm?

Long outlook

Possible 1-2 inches of snow?

Watches for 10/27/06 as of 10:41pm CDT

Storm Reports As of 10:38PM CDT for Friday oct27 2006